Lingfield 3.40 A race that looks set to be run at a proper pace with the
front running Mafeking and the useful Luberon likely to go at it from the off.
This true pace should really set the race up for a horse to run above its mark
and win this competitive handicap. Mafeking is the horse to start analysis on, being that he
has been ultra consistent in defeat. He has more two’s than a South African
priest! He is the one that the handicapper will rate the race through, and he
could well be a fair place selection. The problem I have with Mafeking is that
he is going up the handicap and isn’t winning, and the handicapper really
should have him in his grasp. The horse has also had the run of the races he
recently has raced in, and still has been beaten. If Luberon takes him on I
would be readily opposing him in play. Luberon is the one horse in the race that is on a mark that
looks generous given his past form. The horse however is badly out of form and
as a son of Fantastic Light I would suggest that he isn’t the most straightforward.
He is on a winnable mark but I think he will find a few too good here. Bridge Of Gold is one who is unexposed. This horse has only
raced three times, and has a handicap mark of 100. The mark looks a bit steep
and he will have to improve to win off top weight. The yard seldom overfaces
their horses and as such he does demand some respect. I will be watching with a
trip to Dubai possibly on the cards. Rock Ascot won a mile handicap on his penultimate start and
on his best form I think he would have a leading chance. However I doubt that
he will be capable of winning this race and looks one for the future. John Terry seems to want further than this now that he is
getting older. He is a horse I really like and could well run a big race here.
The worry is that this is a pipeopener on his way to bigger races over the AW
winter. One to watch for the future. Baylini is another horse I like, and she is consistent on
this AW surface. She has had a fair season on turf but is better on this
surface and it would not be a surprise to see her run well here. The worry with
Baylini is that she plods past beaten horses and may not have the gears to win
a race like this. She could be an EW chance. European Dream looks to be coming here for a prep run before
going back over timber. The horse has some decent form on the flat but I would
suggest that this isn’t an ideal race for him. Full Toss has been making hay over the winter and he is one
that has really improved with racing. He is one I think that will probably
reach the frame but I do not think he is brilliantly handicapped and hasn’t had
many excuses in defeat recently. Vainglory is interesting as he is another who likes to race
with the pace and on old form he looks on a fair mark. He ran a fair race at
Southwell last time and could well improve for a switch back to polytrack. This
step back up in trip also looks ideal and the horse could have a productive
winter. A decent EW chance. Bureaucrat is a dodgepot over timber and is one I would be
against. Puzzlemaster is a 4 year old who had been running good races
on the flat prior to his hurdling flop. He could well improve for the switch
back to the flat, and with the yard having winners recently he is another with
grand EW chances. Vainglory is the selection and if I can get 13.0 for the win and 3.50 for the place I will
be staking on the win and on the place. I will update this in the
morning when the market has truly been formed. BETS Vainglory TBP @ 3.9 - £10 matched Vainglory TBP @ 5.00 - £25 unmatched - will take SP if unmatched Vainglory WIN @ 13.00 - £5 unmatched - will take SP if unmatched Vainglory WIN @ 13.5 - £5 unmatched - will take SP if unmatched